You Called A Run On First Down Youre Already Screwed

San Francisco-0.3733.320 Arizona-0.7133.314 Rush-pass-pass-0.0834.025 Detroit+0.0050.014 Pass-rush-rush+0.5688.9%5% Rush-rush-pass wasn’t effective for SeattleThe Seattle Seahawks’ three-play sequences in 2018 by frequency, expected points added and success rate Cincinnati-0.2647.410 Cleveland+0.3746.715 Carolina-0.1440.912 Green Bay-0.1040.010 Dallas+0.1546.413 Rush-rush-rush+0.3152.013 Pittsburgh+0.7061.514 Pass-pass-pass-0.3921.110 Oakland-0.7233.316 Seattle+0.1741.2%26% New Orleans+0.0441.714 Miami-0.5022.618 Atlanta+0.3751.714 sequenceepasuccessfrequency N.Y. Jets+0.1950.013 Frequencies do not add up to 100 percent because of rounding.Sources: NFL, Elias Sports Bureau Rush-rush-pass+0.1741.226 L.A. Chargers-0.1341.220 Rush-pass-rush-0.1538.57 Washington-0.3234.812 Indianapolis-0.0345.516 L.A. Rams+0.2860.016 New England+0.0339.112 Minnesota-0.2841.916 N.Y. Giants+0.2351.516 Play-calling patterns that end in a pass on third down have a negative expected value across the board. If we look at each sequence in terms of EPA per play, we see that the only positive EPA values on third down are on running plays. This makes sense: If you are passing on third down, it strongly implies that the first two plays in the sequence did not end well, and you likely have a third-and-long situation.Meanwhile, the opposite outcome is true on first and second down. There are no positive EPA rushing nodes, and all passing plays return positive expected value. These results hold generally across the league as well. Pass-rush-rush is the most successful three-play sequence, followed by pass-pass-rush and rush-pass-rush.On first down, passing will net you at least 5 yards (enough to make the play a success) 47 percent of the time, while running the ball will get you the same result just 32.8 percent of the time, 14.2 percentage points less often. On second down, the gap closes to about a 7 percentage-point advantage for passing. Baltimore+0.3244.412 Kansas City+1.1953.39 Jacksonville+0.0540.016 Throughout the 2018 regular season, the Seattle Seahawks made a conscious effort to establish the threat of the running game in the minds of their opponents. In the face of record offensive production across the NFL — driven in large part by prolific passing offenses — head coach Pete Carroll doggedly maintained that sticking with running the ball gave the Seahawks the best chance to win. Though they attempted the fewest passes in the NFL, the Seahawks went 10-6 and earned a playoff berth.But that reliance on the run may have been Seattle’s undoing in its 24-22 loss to the Dallas Cowboys in the NFC wild-card game. In the first half the Seahawks’ running backs rushed nine times for an anemic 2.1 yards per carry. Most of those runs came in a particular sequence: rush-rush-pass. All but three of Seattle’s first-half rushing attempts originated from the rush-rush-pass play sequence. And despite the lack of success using that pattern of plays against the Dallas defensive front, Seattle opened its first possession of the second half by calling it again. The result was a punt.The notion of establishing the run is deeply ingrained in NFL culture. Coaches and play-callers laud the approach for its ability to keep a team “on schedule” and “ahead of the chains,” both of which are football shorthand for picking up enough yards on first and second down that you stand a good chance to extend a drive. True believers think that if you abandon the run too early, you make your team one-dimensional and forfeit an important edge in toughness. You’re no longer imposing your will on a defense, and this will manifest itself in worse results overall. But is this true? Does running help a team convert more first downs and extend drives? And does the order in which you call pass and run plays matter?To answer these questions, I looked at every play called in the NFL regular season from 2009 to 20181Using data from the NFL and Elias Sports Bureau. and compared the result of each of the possible permutations of run and pass play sequencing2Excluded plays involving a penalty. using expected points added and success rate.3Expected points added adjusts for things like down, distance and field position, and it includes positive plays like touchdowns as well as negative plays like sacks and interceptions. Success rate is the percentage of plays that are positive in EPA, and it maps fairly closely to how coaches think about play success in the NFL. Success rate is analogous to picking up 5 or more yards on first down, 4 or more yards on second down and converting to a new set of downs on third down. I calculated EPA and success rate for every first-down play; then I looked at every sequence that did not absorb into a first down and extended to second down and then third down, calculating the EPA and success rate for each call.Leaguewide, rushing is the preferred play call on first down, after which passing takes over as the dominant play type, especially on third down. Tampa Bay+0.4447.814 Kansas City, the most dominant passing team in the league, was successful 53.3 percent of the time with rush-rush-pass. But the Chiefs ran the sequence just 15 times all season for a total share of 9 percent of all plays — 7 percentage points below league average — and they were mostly unsuccessful with the first two plays in the chain. When the Chiefs called back-to-back runs on first and second down, the second run was successful just 47.7 percent of the time. This suggests that the success of their third-down passes owes itself more to the strength of the Chiefs passing game and quarterback Patrick Mahomes than to the running plays that led up to them.The story is similar in Los Angeles. Sixty percent of rush-rush-pass play sequences ended in success, and the Rams used the pattern at exactly the league-average frequency. Again, however, when the Rams called back-to-back runs to begin a sequence, the second run was successful just 46.1 percent of the time, leaving them 5.8 yards left to gain for a first-down conversion on average. The success the Rams enjoyed on third-down passing attempts appears to be independent of the rushing plays that preceded them.While the precise order in which passes and runs are called may not matter so much — several combinations are roughly equivalent to one another according to success rate — some trends are clear. Passes are more effective when called on early downs, and runs are more effective on third down. Running on first down, while often a mistake, can be salvaged with a pass on second down. And if you’re going to rush on back-to-back plays to open a series, you should do so sparingly because it will leave your team in an obvious passing situation more often than not. Your passing attack — and QB especially — will need to be well above average to consistently convert in those high-leverage spots where all deception is gone and defenders can be confident that they know what’s coming. Buffalo-0.2643.921 Over the course of the 2018 season, there was no three-play sequence that Seattle favored more than rush-rush-pass. The Seahawks called rush-rush-pass 26 percent of the time, a rate 10 percentage points higher than league average. Yet despite the high frequency with which Carroll and offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer used the pattern, they were not successful with it. Just 41.2 percent of their rush-rush-pass sequences ended in success. Meanwhile, on three-play sequences where the Seahawks started with a pass and mixed in a run afterward, they were successful 88.9 percent of the time (pass-rush-rush), 71.4 percent of the time (pass-pass-rush) and 50 percent (pass-rush-pass) of the time. Tennessee-0.2341.324 Chicago-0.0941.415 How each team uses rush-rush-passThe frequency — and effectiveness — with which every NFL team called rush-rush-pass in a three-play sequence Houston-0.3238.918 teamepasuccessfrequency Sources: NFL, Elias Sports Bureau Pass-pass-rush+0.5071.44 This result is the exact opposite of what we would expect to find if establishing the run via play sequences like rush-rush-pass were winning strategies. Instead of making a team less predictable, establishing the run on first and second down creates a game state that is often quite predictable for the defense. The opposing team is expecting a pass on third down because the first two plays were unsuccessful.Surprisingly, two of the top three teams in net yards per passing attempt in 2018, the Rams and the Chiefs, actually do have success with the rush-rush-pass play sequence. Philadelphia+0.6650.09 Pass-rush-pass+0.3450.012 Check out our latest NFL predictions. Denver-0.4732.417 read more

Kenny Guiton steps up in place of Braxton Miller

Ritika Shah / Assistant photo editorRedshirt-senior quarterback Kenny Guiton throws a pass during a game against San Diego State Sept. 7, at Ohio Stadium. OSU won, 42-7.When a team loses its starting quarterback, particularly when he’s a Heisman trophy candidate, things don’t typically go well.Someone forgot to tell that to the 2-0 Ohio State squad.Buckeye starting quarterback, junior Braxton Miller, left OSU’s 42-7 victory 2:58 into the game after spraining his MCL and did not return.In came redshirt-senior Kenny Guiton, with the hopes of the Buckeye faithful on his shoulders.“I actually wasn’t that nervous today. I know that I prepared all week like a starter. I don’t think I got nervous at all,” Guiton said. “Once I got in, I took my first hit, had my first throw and after that it was just ‘let’s go.’”On the day Guiton finished 19 of 28 passing for 152 yards, two touchdowns and an interception. He also rushed for 83 yards, including a 44-yard touchdown.“I think I started off pretty good, we started off and we went up on the scoreboard pretty good. I think we responded well from the interception, too, but I think the second half I could have played a lot better,” Guiton said. “We protected good, the receivers played a good game. I just have to get them the ball quicker and more often.”OSU coach Urban Meyer said he was impressed by how well his backup signal caller replaced Miller.“The old right hander (Guiton) steps in again and does a nice job. He’s too slow, not a strong enough arm, but all he does is lead manage and distribute and has an incredible knowledge of the game,” Meyer said.Guiton was named a captain for the 2013 season, despite not being a starter, and has been under the spotlight before. Against Purdue in 2012 Guiton replaced the injured Miller and led the Buckeyes to a comeback 29-22 victory in overtime to preserve OSU’s undefeated season.Senior wide receiver Corey “Philly” Brown said when Guiton comes in for Miller, no one on the team stresses about it.“Kenny’s one of the leaders on our team, he’s one of the captains and everybody respects him,” Brown said. “Everybody knows what he brings the table, a lot of confidence, a lot of swagger. He’s a real vocal quarterback, so when Kenny’s out there, nobody’s worried at all.”Brown was the recipient of both of Guiton’s touchdown passes, and after the game, he complimented Guiton on his ability to place the ball in the right spot.“Kenny threw a perfect throw and we had the perfect play called, the corner was really close up, man pressed all day. It was an easy catch and harder throw,” Brown said.Upon coming into the game, Guiton said he didn’t want to think about the pressure of the situation. He just wanted to score.“I really try not to think about that when I hit the field. I just try to think about first down, first down, explosive play until we’re in the endzone,” Guition said. “That’s one thing I always tell the offense and that’s one thing I just always live by.”Guiton’s first drive culminated in a seven-yard touchdown run by freshman running back Dontre Wilson. Wilson said any drop off when Guiton enters the game for Miller is not noticeable.“Kenny is one of the greatest quarterbacks in college football right now, it’s great to have him as a backup,” Wilson said. “We didn’t really lose a lot, Braxton is a Heisman candidate, but Kenny is a great thrower.”Senior offensive lineman Andrew Norwell said the biggest thing Guiton adds to the game is energy.“He brings the juice, he brings the energy. Everybody respects him in the locker room. He’s just a great dude to be around,” Norwell said. “He leads by example. He doesn’t really play a lot because he’s behind Braxton, he’s the backup. When his number’s called he’s got to be ready, and obviously he was ready today.”Although Miller did not return for the rest of the game, some teammates felt he would have been able to play if he was needed. Guiton said when he saw Miller down on the field, he didn’t know what was wrong but was ready to take the field.“I really wasn’t sure at all. I did see that his helmet was off and the guy hit him in the face. I wasn’t sure how bad it was at first or anything. I just tried to prepare and make sure I was ready,” Guiton said.Brown said he thinks Miller will be healthy for OSU’s road trip to California next weekend.“We’re not too worried. We know Braxton’s going to do a good job of rehabbing this week and he’ll be back for this next game,” Brown said. “But even if he’s not everyone on the team has enough confidence in Kenny (Guiton) that he can get it done.”Meyer said he “(thinks) there’s a chance (Miller will) be ready for next week.”Guiton said confidence was a key factor in his performance.“Just getting extended time in a game like that, I think that built my confidence a lot. It’s one thing to practice all the time and become good but it’s different when you’re actually in there doing it,” Guiton said.OSU is set to hit the road to take on California (1-1) Saturday at 7 p.m. read more

Neville predicts a few Man Utd players exits in the summer

first_imgGary Neville has shared he believes Manchester United will lose some players in the summer due to their poor performance lately and the Brighton and Hove Albion defeat might have been the last straw.Mourinho saw his team almost blow up their chances of finishing in the second place in the Premier League this season as they lost 1-0 to Brighton and Hove, even though they are still in the second place in the standings, trailing only after Manchester City.“My view is that ultimately he [Mourinho] doesn’t like some of those players. He’s had enough of them and they are going to go. That’s what I drew from it,” Neville has shared, according to the Sport Review.harry maguire, manchester UnitedMaguire says United need to build on today’s win George Patchias – September 14, 2019 Harry Maguire wants his United teammates to build on the victory over Leicester City.During the summer, Harry Maguire was referred to as the ultimate…“They were absolutely terrible tonight. They’ve played badly at times this season, but won and shown some spirit, but this was not good enough.”“Alright, it’s the end of the season, it’s a game against Brighton and they’ve probably already got second place but they are wearing a Manchester United shirt and the standards have to be a lot higher than that.”“Jose Mourinho looked tonight like he’d lost faith in some of those players,” Neville went on to add.last_img read more

Luis Enrique Rodri can surpass Busquets

first_imgThe British publication, FourFourTwo, have broadcasted the words of Spain national team head coach Luis Enrique concerning Atletico Madrid midfielder Rodri.According to the former Barcelona manager, the 22-year-old hotshot has all characteristics to become a ‘new Sergio Busquets.’Although Rodri is yet to establish himself as a regular starter at the Estadio Wanda Metropolitano following his summer’s arrival from Villarreal, Enrique seems to be a huge fan of the prosperous youngster.“I have already spoken about their similarities,” he told a news conference.“It’s not good to give too much praise and he is very young, but Rodri comes across as very professional and prepared mentally.“He can reach Busquets’ level and maybe surpass it. Who knows what limits he has?”Robert Moreno says he would step aside if Luis Enrique asks him Manuel R. Medina – September 3, 2019 The Spanish national team manager, Robert Moreno, took the job after Luis Enrique stepped down because his nine-year-old daughter passed away after a bone tumor.Rodri will be better than Barcelona icon Busquets – Luis Enrique https://t.co/ohoDJdkoz2 pic.twitter.com/VRS5qnE5za— Goal Nigeria (@GoalcomNigeria) October 4, 2018Now it’s up to the Rodri to give his answer on the field, but a comparison with a figure such as Busquets can only be flattering.The highly-rated midfielder will in the Spain squad for the matches against Wales and England along with Busquets, as well as, his two Atletico companions, Saul Niguez and Koke.last_img read more

Spartak Moscow name Oleg Kononov as new manager

first_imgSpartak Moscow have announced the appointment of Oleg Kononov as their new managerThe Russian Premier League side fired previous coach Massimo Carrera last month after a poor run of results this season.Spartak’s 3-1 defeat to Arsenal Tula on October 21 proved to be the final straw with Carrera being dismissed a day later.Now Spartak have turned to Tula coach Kononov to turn around their fortunes this season.“The offer from Spartak was unexpected for Arsenal, but they wished me success with a new team,” Kononov told the club website.“The fans also reacted warmly and I thank them for that.“I have been coaching for 18 years. I started as an assistant and went through every stage.Joao Mario is delighted to have joined Lokomotiv Moscow Manuel R. Medina – August 27, 2019 Joao Mario has left Italian Lega Serie A side Internazionale Milan to join Lokomotiv Moscow in the Russian Premier League.“I’ve always experienced pressure from my first days of work. The stronger the pressure was, the more I liked it.“Pressure is the path to progress. Under it, you work for more than 100 per cent. No coach or player will develop without it.“Nothing is lost yet. We need to win every match. I’m sure the players are ready to develop.“They just need to realise their potential on the pitch.”Kononov previously led Krasnodar to a third-place finish in the 2014/15 Russian league season.Spartak are eighth in the league table with 19 points from 14 games this term.last_img read more

Emery will bring success to Arsenal – Neymar

first_imgParis Saint-Germain star Neymar believes Unai Emery will bring success to Arsenal.Emery was appointed the manager of the Premier League club earlier this year to replace the departed Arsene Wenger and the Gunners have made a decent start to the season, sitting fifth in the table.Neymar, who played a season under the former Sevilla boss in Paris, backed the Spanish gaffer for success in England.“Now it’s easy to say because Arsenal are playing really great football. They are coming from a great run in recent matches and everybody knows he’s a really great coach,” he told a news conference, according to FourFourTwo.PSG, Neymar, Ligue 1PSG ultras sent a warning letter to Neymar Manuel R. Medina – September 14, 2019 Brazilian superstar Neymar might play today his first game of the season for Paris Saint-Germain and the team’s ultras have warned him.“We know about their quality and I was really happy to work with him because he’s a really hard working guy. He really wanted to coach us and really wanted to study about football.”“I think he will bring good things for Arsenal, which is a really huge and important club here in England. I wish him luck.”Arsenal have dropped a place down in the Premier League after three straight draws, and are currently eight points behind table-toppers Manchester City.last_img read more

Shaqiri unfazed by Liverpools backtoback defeats

first_imgLiverpool midfielder Xherdan Shaqiri is confident they will bounce back from their back-to-back defeats to Manchester City and WolvesAfter seeing their 20-match unbeaten start in the Premier League come to an end with a 2-1 loss at City last week, Liverpool’s woes continued on Monday night with a surprise FA Cup defeat to Wolves by the same scoreline.For the game at Molineux, manager Jurgen Klopp fielded a much-changed side with Shaqiri being restored into the starting line-up.But the Switzerland international was unable to help prevent Liverpool from an early cup exit after goals from Raul Jimenez and Ruben Neves sealed Wolves a 2-1 win, despite Divock Origi finding the net for the Reds.“Of course, we are disappointed after this game because we lost, first of all, but I think we didn’t deserve this result because we tried to play football,” Shaqiri told the club website.“We tried to come back. We tried everything until the end and you cannot say the attitude wasn’t there until the last minute. We tried everything.“Sometimes you need luck also and the free-kick was very unlucky. I saw the ball inside already, but it never went in.Harry Maguire, Manchester UnitedLiverpool legend Nicol slams Harry Maguire’s Man United form Andrew Smyth – September 14, 2019 Steve Nicol believes Harry Maguire has made some “horrendous mistakes” recently, and has failed to find his best form since joining Manchester United.“We obviously had a lot of young players and a lot of players in who didn’t play for a long time.“We wanted to win this game to go to the next round, but the FA Cup is like this: you lose the game and you are out.“So, we close this game now and are looking forward to the weekend and the Premier League.”The 27-year-old, however, is confident that Liverpool have the required quality to bounce back.Shaqiri added: “I think we have enough players who can jump in.“This season we have the depth. There are a lot of players who are going to come in and give everything and the quality is still there.”Klopp’s side will next take on Brighton in the Premier League this Saturday.last_img read more

Israel kills Palestinian nurse

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Highredshift quasar discovered by PanSTARRS

first_imgThe spectrum of PSO J006.1240+39.2219. The spectrum and spectrum error are combined into upper and lower panels, respectively. Credit: Tang et al., 2016. (Phys.org)—A new luminous high-redshift quasar has been detected by one of the telescopes of the Panoramic Survey Telescope and Rapid Response System (Pan-STARRS). The newly discovered quasi-stellar object received designation PSO J006.1240+39.2219 and is the seventh highest redshift quasar known to date. The findings are presented in a paper published Dec. 19 on arXiv.org. © 2016 Phys.org This document is subject to copyright. Apart from any fair dealing for the purpose of private study or research, no part may be reproduced without the written permission. The content is provided for information purposes only. Astronomers find universe’s most distant quasar (w/ video) More information: A Quasar Discovered at redshift 6.6 from Pan-STARRS1, arXiv:1612.06148 [astro-ph.GA] arxiv.org/abs/1612.06148AbstractLuminous high-redshift quasars can be used to probe of the intergalactic medium (IGM) in the early universe because their UV light is absorbed by the neutral hydrogen along the line of sight. They help us to measure the neutral hydrogen fraction of the high-z universe, shedding light on the end of reionization epoch. In this paper, we present a discovery of a new quasar (PSO J006.1240+39.2219) at redshift z = 6.61 +- 0.02 from Panoramic Survey Telescope & Rapid Response System 1. Including this quasar, there are nine quasars above z > 6.5 up to date. The estimated continuum brightness is M1450= 25.96 +- 0.08. PSO J006.1240+39.2219 has a strong Ly alpha emission compared with typical low-redshift quasars, but the measured near-zone region size is RNZ = 3.2 +- 1.1 proper megaparsecs, which is consistent with other quasars at z~6. Quasars are supermassive black holes with accretion disks in the center of a galaxy. Their redshifts are measured from the strong spectral lines that dominate their visible and ultraviolet spectra. These lines are brighter than the continuous spectrum, so they are called ’emission’ lines. All observed quasar spectra have redshifts between 0.056 and 7.085.Quasars with high redshift (over 6.0) are of special interest for astronomers because their ultraviolet light is absorbed by the neutral hydrogen along the line of sight; thus, they can be used to probe the intergalactic medium in the early universe. They are the most luminous and most distant, compact objects in the observable universe. Their spectrum can be used to estimate the mass of a supermassive black hole, which constrains the evolution and formation model of a quasar. Therefore, high-redshift quasars could serve as a powerful tool to probe the early universe.Recently, a team of researchers led by Ji-Jia Tang of the National Taiwan University in Taipei, Taiwan, has searched for such quasars using the first Pan-STARRS telescope (PS1) located in Hawaii. In particular, they tried to find red-color objects between two adjacent broad bands caused by the strong intergalactic medium absorption on the blue side of the redshifted Lyman-alpha line emission.They detected a new luminous high-redshift quasar at redshift of 6.61. The discovery was later confirmed by the team during a follow-up observation campaign carried out with the Subaru Faint Object Camera and Spectrograph (FOCAS) mounted on the Subaru Telescope in Hawaii.According to the paper, PSO J006.1240+39.2219, besides being the seventh highest redshift quasar known to date, is also one of nine quasars above the redshift of 6.5.”We report a discovery of a new quasar at z 6.6 select from PS1 with a spectroscopic confirmation. This is the seventh highest quasar among nine z-dropout quasar (z>6.5) known to date,” the paper reads.The researchers found that the rest-frame ultraviolet luminosity of PSO J006.1240+39.2219 is comparable to other z-dropout quasars, though its Lyman-alpha line emission is much stronger when compared to typical quasars obtained from low redshift.”J006.1240+39.2219 is consistent with other comparably distant quasars, although it has much stronger Lyman-alpha line. (…) The spectral resolution is adjusted to match for a fair comparison. This shows that Lyman-alpha line emission of PSO J006.1240+39.2219 is much stronger than those quasars at low redshifts,” the astronomers wrote.The team also noted that after decades of searching, more than 100 quasars were found with redshifts between 5.7 and 6.5 from various kind of surveys. So far, ULAS J112001.48+064124 is the highest redshift quasar with a redshift of 7.085. It was found in 2011 using UK Infrared Telescope (UKIRT) Infrared Deep Sky Survey (UKIDSS). Citation: High-redshift quasar discovered by Pan-STARRS (2016, December 21) retrieved 18 August 2019 from https://phys.org/news/2016-12-high-redshift-quasar-pan-starrs.html Explore furtherlast_img read more

KMC gives Kolkata Shree awards to Puja committees

first_imgKolkata: The Kolkata Municipal Corporation (KMC) on Thursday handed out Kolkata Shree awards to the puja committees in the city that had stood out in this year’s Durga Puja. The programme at Mohor Kunja also witnessed handing over of an award to Sahapur Panchabati Puja committee that was selected through online voting on the KMC website. Speaking on the occasion, Mayor Sovan Chatterjee said: “The Kolkata Shree award is the brainchild of Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee. A lot of hard work goes into the arrangements during Durga Puja and this needs acknowledgement. So, we have been felicitating the best puja. Our Chief Minister has also given Rs 10,000 to all the puja committees for the first time this year.” Also Read – Rain batters Kolkata, cripples normal lifeThe different categories in which the awards were given out include: Serar Sera, Sera Pujo, Sera Pratima, Sera Sailpik Utkorsho, Sera Bishoi, Sera Aloksojja, Sera Paribesh, Sera Parichanno Puja, Sera Sambhabana and Mayor’s Choice. A total of 45 puja committees were awarded in the Mayor’s Choice category. The committees that won in the Serar Sera category are- Chetla Agrani, 95 Pally, Suruchi Sangha and Tridhara Akalbodhon. In the Sera Pujo category, Naktala Udayan Sangha, Rajdanga Udayan, Hindustan Club and Abasar Sarbojanin bagged the award. Bagbazar Sarbojanin, Tala Pratyay, Kashi Bose Lane and Behala Natun Dal won in the Sera Pratima category, while in Sera Sailpik Utkorsho, the prizes went to Shib Mandir, Selimpur Pally, 66 Pally and Bosepukur Sitala Mandir. Swapna Barman, the first Indian woman to win a gold in heptathlon at the Asian Games this year, was also felicitated at the programme.last_img read more